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Seismic Risk Assessment: Deciding how
to allocate resources for remediation
Context of the Project: Earthquakes
in the Pacific Northwest
In the 1996 and 1997 Regional Meeting
of the Geologic Society of America (GSA) geologists shared evidence supporting
a hypothesis that the Pacific Northwest has experienced high magnitude
(8-9) earthquakes on a (roughly calculated) 300 year re-occurrence interval.
Based on sands remaining from a tsunami event found in coastal deposits
along the Oregon and Washington coasts, initial estimates of the most recent
event is about 1700. Japanese tsunami records actually date such an event
on January 1, 1700 at 9:36 am (or some amazingly specific time). The coastal
impact revealed a pattern unlike that of the other great subduction zone
earthquakes (Alaska, 1964; Chile, 1960).
An event of such magnitude may have occurred at the North American-Juan
de Fuca plate boundary. However, historical records show only one event
right on that subduction zone (1992 Petrolia earthquake 7.1 magnitude).
The quakes of this region are mostly in the upper (North American) plate,
while some occur in the lower (Juan de Fuca) plate. There is debate as
to whether this "seismic gap" is the result of aseismic convergence or
the more ominous possibility of a strain building, locked plate boundary.
From Cape Mendecino California to Vancouver B. C. city, state and provincial
governments are acting to minimize seismic induced damage. That endeavor
starts with assessment and resource allocation.
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